Another day, another $100 or so. Actually, it's been one month, but I made another decent trade. Not quite 5%, but it's positive, so I'll take it. Here are the details:
On Aug 10, my "Superhero" Screen pointed me to a company called Synaptics as being undervalued. I did a little reading and realized they had taken a healthy beating after not quite beating Wall Street's earnings expectations - but still making good money. I bought 1400 shares at 26.85 and set a sell limit order for $30 and walked away. Today, while checking some stocks, I saw SYNA had made it's way up to 28.44, but had fallen back to $28.25 or so. I *tried* to sell at 28.25 and lock in 5%, but the order never went through... which is another lesson for another day (Level 2!) I kept lowering my limit and the price kept falling. For a couple reasons (one stock related, and one not stock related) I decided to go ahead and execute a market sell order (bad juju) and got out of the stock at $28.08.
Here's the math:
1-(26.85/28.08) = .0438 or 4.38% gross profit margin
HOWEVER... we have to include our transaction costs (which are what kill most small trades) to get our net realization. I'm trading on Scottrade, so it's $7 to buy and $7 to sell, for a total of $14. Spread over 100 shares, that's an additional cost of 14 cents per share, so...
1 - ((26.85 + 0.14)/28.08) = .0388 OR 3.88% net profit margin (pre-tax... which is also another lesson for another day... tax day.)
How many positive trades make a trend? I need a trend of positive.
So, it seems I've picked up on screening a little, which is good.
BUY THE RUMOR SELL THE NEWS
OK, so I have no focus and concentration whatsoever and I've been watching some penny stocks, some penny stock traders, and the trading world a bit in general. I've learned are a couple of things that I intend to implement:
1. Volume makes money. This is true for big stocks and little stocks. One of the things I've noticed is that I've been moving slowly because I've been playing with low volume / slow moving stocks. Which is fine, as long as I keep going forward, but they don't feed the need for action... (what? i thought this was about making money!! it is, but it doesn't hurt to learn a little faster...) Anyway, more volume means more movement in the stock. Hope you're on the right side of the movement (unlike how this thing started in December.)
2. Stocks move on rumor and news. There are people who sit around and watch charts and news (I'm learning to). If the chart lines up, and some news comes out, the game is on... and it's definitely a game. Sometimes the news is rehashing of old news, but it generates buzz and volume - even if for a day. Sometimes this is legit, sometimes it's...
3. Pump and dump. You've heard it. You may understand it. I won't go into an explanation here, because I can't do it justice, but once you understand it, you'll be able to spot it if you're trying (I've noticed.) You can make money while others are pumping and dumping if you don't get too greedy. I'm going to give it a shot over the next few weeks months. I think I'm less greedy than others, so we'll see how it works out for me. "Greed is good".
More on pumping and dumping... I've joined a few stock trading forums where there are plenty of people analyzing stock charts, news, etc. One of them does a pretty good job of putting out an alert that is probably a borderline pump. They tend to give official news (and I wonder how they get it - something else for me to learn) but also puts some technical analysis with it, so it's legit for them, but whoever is accumulating the alerts is ahead of everyone else on the site (which is fair). They've nailed some pretty good calls, but I don't know if I'd be able to move fast enough on one of their alerts (which happen when the market opens and the stock is usually on the way up already). I've tracked them for a couple of weeks and the alerts that I've felt comfortable with have been winners (they also point out some stocks to watch that i think are losers - maybe they're good for shorting.)
I'm going to give one of these alerts a shot next week. We'll see. I did pick up about $170 worth of a penny stock that someone alerted on... of course, it fell after i picked it up, because I picked it up far too late. Lesson learned. I'm still holding the stock. For now, it's down about 45% from when I bought it and 100% from the high on the day I bough it. It'll move again and I'll get out then. Nothing major if I don't sell it... and nothing major if I lose $170 total to learn a little about penny stocks and the related trading(I won't lose it all.)
Oh, I almost forgot to give the "overall" numbers...
As of today, the account is worth $2,920. I've put in $3500, so I'm still down 16.6%, but I'm going to HOPE for CHANGE... (actually, I'm going to WORK for GAIN. Hope and change are for politicians.)
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Allow me to reintroduce myself...
So a full quarter later, I've made a 5% trade. It's a celebration, beaches. My last post was about a huge loss at the end of April and then stock screening to find the next nugget. So, I'll pick up there.
So, Superhero on the Shag (if you don't know, it's because you haven't gotten VIP access yet) gave me some pointers on stock screening. Basically, I screened for stocks that actually have performed well, fundamentally, but have recently been bashed in the market for what appears to be no real reason. I played around with some screens and came up with TSYS and figured I'd try it out.
On May 1, TSYS had just beat earnings, had almost no debt, a low PE, lots of patents, long term defense contracts, all kinds of good... and got bashed to the tune of about 7%. So I bought 100 shares at $9.21. I didn't go with the full $1700 just yet on this one (because, apparently, I like to pay transaction costs - you'll see.)
Of course, as soon as I bought the stock that had already dropped after positive news, it fell more... On May 4, I bought another 90 shares for $8.95. Happy Birthday to me. I bought stock in a good company, at what seemed to be a good price. Of course, the price kept falling, and even though I've learned the lesson, I refused to set a stop... which is a good thing, because I didn't want to get stopped out on a good company. Everything I've read about this company points to it being "undervalued." So I waited it out.
AND DOWN GOES FRAZIER... WHAT'S GOOD FOR THE GOOSE
I bet no one has ever put those to phrases together to make a sub-title. I've been the first at many things. As my son would say, "I'm firsty." He's just not stupid enough to try to be witty about it. He wants a drink. But I digress...
So, the price of TSYS keeps falling. However, unlike my play with the 3x FAIL, I feel pretty good about a rebound. So, I did what the real traders do.
(Commercial: Do you care about grammar? Are you questioning how I change tense from one sentence to the next? Do these symptoms last for the entirety of this, or any, internet post? If so, maybe you should ask your doctor about Calmdaphugdown (r) (1-Tetra-n-Chillax). Calmdaphugdown is a beta-stupid-oversensitive-nerve blocker that will help you not be such a tight ass all the time. Ask your doctor about Calmdaphugdown. Side affects include no longer caring about things that aren't as important as you once thought they were, not being annoying, and not actually thinking the President of the United States is an illegal alien...)
As I was saying before the break, I did what the big houses do. Yep, I bent the rules a bit. I figured, if this thing is going to fall 33% in 45 days or so, but is otherwise a good buy, I'll buy more and average my cost basis down. I threw in another grand and on June 11, I bought 140 shares at $6.95. Of course, the price fell again, almost immediately, to around $6.60
Let's pause to learn something... This guy (me) bought a stock in small quantities. He bought it three times, thus paying for three transactions in. Good thing we have the internets making transactions cheap. Three $7s is acceptable (less than 1% of total transaction). Three $19.95s would not be.
EARNINGS SEASON IS UPON US
Earnings and stimulus are a wonderful thing - for somebody. Maybe all of us, but something tells me not so much. Cash for clunkers... think about it. You drive an old car - probably paid off if it's only worth $4,500 (or less). However, you now have the incentive to go buy a NEW car and get $4,500 for the car you were driving. What a bargain! for the dealers who weren't selling cars. You just got more debt and an asset that depreciated 40% in one day. It's the American way. (Apparently, it's THE way now.. Go read Financial Jenga and learn from someone who is not just making things up as they go along... like I am.)
The rumors and rumblings around TSYS were that it would beat the analyst estimates and all of that good stuff. The price starts ticking upward again. I'm feeling good about my $8.26 cost basis. Then, the earnings call hits - and I don't really make a note of it, because I'm travelling for work or whatever. Apparently, though, the call wasn't very clear and it comes across that TSYS missed earnings, coming in at 19 cents a share. No price spike. I do some reading and find that TSYS is actually at 28 cents a share, so I hold on and wait for this 'correction' to be realized... (My charts still say 19 cents, but 28 cents is right.) I guess someone(s) realized it, because today, I sold TSYS for a whopping $8.70 (still below my original $9.21 purchase price, but above my basis... can I pick'em or what?). That's 5% with transaction costs and all of that. Some say it's going to $12. I think it's going back to $6. If it does, I'll probably buy again and wait for next quarter. But I'll do it in my "PA". Yeah, I'm ballin like that now.
So, what did we learn or reinforce:
1. Screen to find undervalued stocks.
2. Set your stops, or "know" that you're on the right side of the deal and be ready to be negative for a bit.
3. Average your basis... if you're right, but the market is wrong, buy more. You better be right.
4. It's not cheating if there's not a penalty. Ask Goldman Sachs... or Big Papi.
5. "Buy the rumor, sell the news." I'm starting to understand this more each day. I need cable in my office. (No, I need to work in my office. CNBC is not work.)
So, where do we stand? (we? yep, you're in this with me - kinda like cheerleaders..or fail leaders.)
Total deposits: $3,500
Total value: $2,870
Total return: -18%
That's better than my 401k did last year... of course, they S&P has returned 13% YTD. So far, I've spent $630 on learnin. I tell myself it's cheaper than going to one of those weekend classes... and more fun. (Notice I don't tell myself it's more productive.)
Now, go read the Financial Times.
So, Superhero on the Shag (if you don't know, it's because you haven't gotten VIP access yet) gave me some pointers on stock screening. Basically, I screened for stocks that actually have performed well, fundamentally, but have recently been bashed in the market for what appears to be no real reason. I played around with some screens and came up with TSYS and figured I'd try it out.
On May 1, TSYS had just beat earnings, had almost no debt, a low PE, lots of patents, long term defense contracts, all kinds of good... and got bashed to the tune of about 7%. So I bought 100 shares at $9.21. I didn't go with the full $1700 just yet on this one (because, apparently, I like to pay transaction costs - you'll see.)
Of course, as soon as I bought the stock that had already dropped after positive news, it fell more... On May 4, I bought another 90 shares for $8.95. Happy Birthday to me. I bought stock in a good company, at what seemed to be a good price. Of course, the price kept falling, and even though I've learned the lesson, I refused to set a stop... which is a good thing, because I didn't want to get stopped out on a good company. Everything I've read about this company points to it being "undervalued." So I waited it out.
AND DOWN GOES FRAZIER... WHAT'S GOOD FOR THE GOOSE
I bet no one has ever put those to phrases together to make a sub-title. I've been the first at many things. As my son would say, "I'm firsty." He's just not stupid enough to try to be witty about it. He wants a drink. But I digress...
So, the price of TSYS keeps falling. However, unlike my play with the 3x FAIL, I feel pretty good about a rebound. So, I did what the real traders do.
(Commercial: Do you care about grammar? Are you questioning how I change tense from one sentence to the next? Do these symptoms last for the entirety of this, or any, internet post? If so, maybe you should ask your doctor about Calmdaphugdown (r) (1-Tetra-n-Chillax). Calmdaphugdown is a beta-stupid-oversensitive-nerve blocker that will help you not be such a tight ass all the time. Ask your doctor about Calmdaphugdown. Side affects include no longer caring about things that aren't as important as you once thought they were, not being annoying, and not actually thinking the President of the United States is an illegal alien...)
As I was saying before the break, I did what the big houses do. Yep, I bent the rules a bit. I figured, if this thing is going to fall 33% in 45 days or so, but is otherwise a good buy, I'll buy more and average my cost basis down. I threw in another grand and on June 11, I bought 140 shares at $6.95. Of course, the price fell again, almost immediately, to around $6.60
Let's pause to learn something... This guy (me) bought a stock in small quantities. He bought it three times, thus paying for three transactions in. Good thing we have the internets making transactions cheap. Three $7s is acceptable (less than 1% of total transaction). Three $19.95s would not be.
EARNINGS SEASON IS UPON US
Earnings and stimulus are a wonderful thing - for somebody. Maybe all of us, but something tells me not so much. Cash for clunkers... think about it. You drive an old car - probably paid off if it's only worth $4,500 (or less). However, you now have the incentive to go buy a NEW car and get $4,500 for the car you were driving. What a bargain! for the dealers who weren't selling cars. You just got more debt and an asset that depreciated 40% in one day. It's the American way. (Apparently, it's THE way now.. Go read Financial Jenga and learn from someone who is not just making things up as they go along... like I am.)
The rumors and rumblings around TSYS were that it would beat the analyst estimates and all of that good stuff. The price starts ticking upward again. I'm feeling good about my $8.26 cost basis. Then, the earnings call hits - and I don't really make a note of it, because I'm travelling for work or whatever. Apparently, though, the call wasn't very clear and it comes across that TSYS missed earnings, coming in at 19 cents a share. No price spike. I do some reading and find that TSYS is actually at 28 cents a share, so I hold on and wait for this 'correction' to be realized... (My charts still say 19 cents, but 28 cents is right.) I guess someone(s) realized it, because today, I sold TSYS for a whopping $8.70 (still below my original $9.21 purchase price, but above my basis... can I pick'em or what?). That's 5% with transaction costs and all of that. Some say it's going to $12. I think it's going back to $6. If it does, I'll probably buy again and wait for next quarter. But I'll do it in my "PA". Yeah, I'm ballin like that now.
So, what did we learn or reinforce:
1. Screen to find undervalued stocks.
2. Set your stops, or "know" that you're on the right side of the deal and be ready to be negative for a bit.
3. Average your basis... if you're right, but the market is wrong, buy more. You better be right.
4. It's not cheating if there's not a penalty. Ask Goldman Sachs... or Big Papi.
5. "Buy the rumor, sell the news." I'm starting to understand this more each day. I need cable in my office. (No, I need to work in my office. CNBC is not work.)
So, where do we stand? (we? yep, you're in this with me - kinda like cheerleaders..or fail leaders.)
Total deposits: $3,500
Total value: $2,870
Total return: -18%
That's better than my 401k did last year... of course, they S&P has returned 13% YTD. So far, I've spent $630 on learnin. I tell myself it's cheaper than going to one of those weekend classes... and more fun. (Notice I don't tell myself it's more productive.)
Now, go read the Financial Times.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Let the fun begin (again)
So, I'm out of FAS at $8.55.
FAS opened at $8.55 this morning. When it got to $8.63, I set a trailing stop at 35 cents. It bounced to $8.90. Then Obama spoke and FAS fell back to $8.55 and my stop was triggered. It's at $8.43 as I type, so I did something right.
So, all in all, I took a 45% loss on this FAS trade. Ouch.
I decided I wouldn't add any more funds to the account. I'm $1,826 now (ie, my original $2,000 is down to around $1,100 and I'm not in terrible shape since I threw in $600 and made two good trades.
But today, I learned a little bit more about stock screening, so I guess I'll give that a run on Monday... (Thanks, Superhero)
Happy learning / trading and whatnot.
FAS opened at $8.55 this morning. When it got to $8.63, I set a trailing stop at 35 cents. It bounced to $8.90. Then Obama spoke and FAS fell back to $8.55 and my stop was triggered. It's at $8.43 as I type, so I did something right.
So, all in all, I took a 45% loss on this FAS trade. Ouch.
I decided I wouldn't add any more funds to the account. I'm $1,826 now (ie, my original $2,000 is down to around $1,100 and I'm not in terrible shape since I threw in $600 and made two good trades.
But today, I learned a little bit more about stock screening, so I guess I'll give that a run on Monday... (Thanks, Superhero)
Happy learning / trading and whatnot.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Ctrl-Alt-Del
Sheesh. OK, I screwed that up. Where do I start?
So back in January, I sold 68 shares of BGU at 27.78, so I took a loss of almost $2 per share. Ok, that was terrible and whatnot, but I'd survive, right? I figure I better get crackin and buy back into the market, so I bought 110 shares of FAS at $15.01. Well, my BGU sale hadn't completed (funds weren't available) and I was going to get hit with a free ride IF I sold before my account got the funds from the BGU sale, so I didn't set a stop limit on the FAS order, and I waited for the BGU to clear...
FAIL!
I bought FAS at $15 on a Friday morning and by the end of the day on Monday, it was at... wait for it... $7.63. And like that, I let a trade turn into a bad investment. I held it the whole time, thinking, it has to go back to $15. Wrong.
Today is April 29 and I've decided that I am not going to accomplish anything holding this bag o crap. So, I'm going to sell it and get back to trading.
I did cheat a little on 1/22 and put up $600 I had laying around so I could buy and sell some FAZ and SKF and make a little chump change. That worked.
1/22 - Bought 3 SKF @ 170.14
1/22 - Bought 3 FAZ at $65.53
2/19 - Sold 3 SKF @ 183.55
2/20 - Sold 3 FAZ @ 81.76
The silver lining behind this dark cloud: I made 5% on the SKF and 10% on the SKF! Remember, the goal was to learn how to make successful trades and make them. This is cheap education.
I als got a whopping $1.72 dividend on 3/31 for the FAS shares. The tax on that is probably $3.00.
Also, I learned something extremely simple and reinforced what I already knew. The simple thing I learned (thanks to LongIsland) was a way to keep from triggering a free ride. PUT MONEY IN YOUR ACCOUNT! Duh. If you get out of a trade, but are waiting for it to clear, just put in the dollar amount and bingo-bango you're ready to trade. No free ride. No risk to your additional funds (because the money is coming). I reinforced the importance of setting stops. Hell I'm just a wannabe padowan and I've given that advice more than I can recall. Do as I say, not as I did.
So, the net of it is, I'm about to realize a huge loss in FAS, because I need to get on with the trading.... of course, while typing this, the market closed, so I'll be selling tomorrow in pre-market (assuming it's not at $5 or something horrendous.) I'm going to sell, re-capitalize, and get back in the game.
What's the o/u on how long it will take me to get my money back? How long is the off-season?
So back in January, I sold 68 shares of BGU at 27.78, so I took a loss of almost $2 per share. Ok, that was terrible and whatnot, but I'd survive, right? I figure I better get crackin and buy back into the market, so I bought 110 shares of FAS at $15.01. Well, my BGU sale hadn't completed (funds weren't available) and I was going to get hit with a free ride IF I sold before my account got the funds from the BGU sale, so I didn't set a stop limit on the FAS order, and I waited for the BGU to clear...
FAIL!
I bought FAS at $15 on a Friday morning and by the end of the day on Monday, it was at... wait for it... $7.63. And like that, I let a trade turn into a bad investment. I held it the whole time, thinking, it has to go back to $15. Wrong.
Today is April 29 and I've decided that I am not going to accomplish anything holding this bag o crap. So, I'm going to sell it and get back to trading.
I did cheat a little on 1/22 and put up $600 I had laying around so I could buy and sell some FAZ and SKF and make a little chump change. That worked.
1/22 - Bought 3 SKF @ 170.14
1/22 - Bought 3 FAZ at $65.53
2/19 - Sold 3 SKF @ 183.55
2/20 - Sold 3 FAZ @ 81.76
The silver lining behind this dark cloud: I made 5% on the SKF and 10% on the SKF! Remember, the goal was to learn how to make successful trades and make them. This is cheap education.
I als got a whopping $1.72 dividend on 3/31 for the FAS shares. The tax on that is probably $3.00.
Also, I learned something extremely simple and reinforced what I already knew. The simple thing I learned (thanks to LongIsland) was a way to keep from triggering a free ride. PUT MONEY IN YOUR ACCOUNT! Duh. If you get out of a trade, but are waiting for it to clear, just put in the dollar amount and bingo-bango you're ready to trade. No free ride. No risk to your additional funds (because the money is coming). I reinforced the importance of setting stops. Hell I'm just a wannabe padowan and I've given that advice more than I can recall. Do as I say, not as I did.
So, the net of it is, I'm about to realize a huge loss in FAS, because I need to get on with the trading.... of course, while typing this, the market closed, so I'll be selling tomorrow in pre-market (assuming it's not at $5 or something horrendous.) I'm going to sell, re-capitalize, and get back in the game.
What's the o/u on how long it will take me to get my money back? How long is the off-season?
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Soy un perderdor
Goodbye TARP money, goodbye S&P.
I sold out of BGU this morning @ $27.78. Down 6%+. This market is all jacked up!!!
Well, I bought another monitor yesterday. Maybe I'll watch a little more and learn a little more.
"How to Lose 7.2% in One Day."
I sold out of BGU this morning @ $27.78. Down 6%+. This market is all jacked up!!!
Well, I bought another monitor yesterday. Maybe I'll watch a little more and learn a little more.
"How to Lose 7.2% in One Day."
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
DON'T BLINK!
Well, crap. I woke up this morning, did a little research and thought the market was going to head down more. I screwed around and looked at my usual Bear and Bull ETFs (BGZ, BGU, SDS, SH) and some other stocks in pre-market and saw the market was ticking down.
I think to myself, "OK, maybe it's time to get on the triple leverage train to getting paid. Let's look a little deeper at BGZ." Oh, it's already up 5% in after-hours, I should probably stay away from it.
SWING AND A MISS - Market opens and an hour later, BGZ is up 10%.
Well, at least I had the right feel for what was going on. I just didn't have dee nutz to make it happen. I don't know why, because I had a plan and everything. Make the order, set a stop at 3% below, so not to lose too much if I was wrong, and let it ride.
Not being in feels worse than buying it and being wrong. OK, that may be a bit of Hyperbole.
PUT ME IN COACH!
I think to myself, "OK, maybe it's time to get on the triple leverage train to getting paid. Let's look a little deeper at BGZ." Oh, it's already up 5% in after-hours, I should probably stay away from it.
SWING AND A MISS - Market opens and an hour later, BGZ is up 10%.
Well, at least I had the right feel for what was going on. I just didn't have dee nutz to make it happen. I don't know why, because I had a plan and everything. Make the order, set a stop at 3% below, so not to lose too much if I was wrong, and let it ride.
Not being in feels worse than buying it and being wrong. OK, that may be a bit of Hyperbole.
PUT ME IN COACH!
Friday, January 9, 2009
One down...
1/9/08
Well, that's better... I closed my first +5% today, closing out my SDS position @ $71.72. It'll probably go to $90, but that's not what I came here for... (I'll still curse when it does.)
So let's review:
1/5/08 - bought 25 SDS @ $67.49 + $7.00 transaction fee = $1,694.25 out
1/9/08 - sold 25 SDS @ $71.72 - $7.00 transaction fee = $1,786 in
That's 5.13% ROI.
"It's a celebration, bitches!"
Well, almost, since I didn't turn the full $2k, I'll just say I did good, and start on the next 5%.
"Will work for tips."
Have a good weekend - Hoosier
Well, that's better... I closed my first +5% today, closing out my SDS position @ $71.72. It'll probably go to $90, but that's not what I came here for... (I'll still curse when it does.)
So let's review:
1/5/08 - bought 25 SDS @ $67.49 + $7.00 transaction fee = $1,694.25 out
1/9/08 - sold 25 SDS @ $71.72 - $7.00 transaction fee = $1,786 in
That's 5.13% ROI.
"It's a celebration, bitches!"
Well, almost, since I didn't turn the full $2k, I'll just say I did good, and start on the next 5%.
"Will work for tips."
Have a good weekend - Hoosier
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